Is the economy in for a V, a U or a W? HSBC Chief thinks it's a W

There is a lot of talk about recovery from the recession, greenshoots and even a new bull market. So I’ve been talking to a few heads of business about how business is going. There are a few outstanding results. A Pharma company that we work with is ahead of target for the second year and experiencing double digit growth. Even some of the specialist FS companies and banks that we work for are doing well. But I’m also finding an increasing number of businesses that are telling me that August and September have been their worst trading months ever. It’s almost as if a year on from the credit crisis, the wave that washed over the financial world has receded and many businesses and consumers are viewing the destruction around them and it’s not a pretty sight. During an interview with The Financial Times The Michael Geoghegan, head of Britain’s biggest bank warned we could soon be heading into a second recession and he fears the upturn will be short lived. He believes that the economy could follow a W-shaped trajectory, with the rebound going into reverse and growth retreating back into the red. Our research suggest that he is right, unfortunately we will not be going back to the normal before the credit crunch. There is now a new normal and bold, creative leadership is required.